David Jenkins
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| posted on 22/3/20 at 09:39 AM |
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pooh
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SJ
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| posted on 22/3/20 at 09:49 AM |
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Actually Russ, no I haven't seen any pics or more importantly anyone in real life doing that.
Not saying it isn't happening but also not sure I believe there isn't a supply issue. If things were ok supermarkets would be fully
stocked at the start of the day and they aren't.
I have seen lots of ordinary people queuing in an orderly fashion and unable to buy food. Happy to be proved wrong though.
Stu
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02GF74
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| posted on 22/3/20 at 10:54 AM |
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I've not done any shopping in excess of my normal shop. The panic buying will dwindle as there is finite space on people's freezers and
homes.... unless people are buying additional feeeaers.
I honestly don't believe people will starve in this country although this is a totally unprecedented situation.
One thing for sure, noone going on about brexit.
So let's look after ourselves and others, and be grateful the mortality rate is 4% and not the other way round 96%, who knows what the next
virus will bring.
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cliftyhanger
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| posted on 22/3/20 at 11:13 AM |
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Last Monday I nipped to Sainsburys 5 mins before it opened. We had just returned from holiday, so nothing in the fridge etc.
I also have a pair of 89 year old parents that I wanted to start "upping" their supplies should I or my sister get isolated.
Managed to get bogroll for us and them (stocks at home were critical, down to 1 spare roll. Parents had a few, but I would have got them it anyway) ,
but reckon I was lucky. 1kg of basmati rice for us (not our usual, and the half pack we had was at my parents place for them) I also nabbed about 25
cans of various soups for my parents. I did get some "looks" but nobody challenged me. A few other odds and ends, luckily bacon, bangers
and a pack of chicken for us (less than our usual weekly shop)
Since then I have been isolated, sister has been "tending" the parents terrified in case she gets ill. The soup is going down by a can a
day, and by some miracle sister is managing to find stuff in waitrose who seem to have more stuff than the others. Probably as prices are higher?
But I do worry. My parents have been inside for a few weeks as mum is not too well (always tired, quite stroppy too) but looks like it is just the
start of extended isolation. And somebody has to visit twice daily, so me or sister though hoping to get some carers involved, though that is tricky
as the agencies are saying no availability as many carers are self-isolating. And that is another big issue. How many oldies will suffer/die because
of no carers available? I am guessing a lot 
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rusty nuts
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| posted on 22/3/20 at 11:53 AM |
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We have confirmed case(s) within 300 meters of our house and still have muppets gathering on the village rec near the children’s play area . I can’t
help thinking that maybe some supermarkets would be better off if they were open 24 hours which would probably reduce the number of customers at any
one time? Better still give out numbered tickets as people arrive in the car park and limit the number of people allowed in and more importantly
ration hard to get items. Stay safe!
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ReMan
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| posted on 22/3/20 at 01:36 PM |
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I think you'll find people have already panic buyed freezers, out of stock at most big places now.
I got aghead of the game of fuel today and filled the car up instead of just the normal £10
www.plusnine.co.uk
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steve m
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| posted on 23/3/20 at 08:17 AM |
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"I got aghead of the game of fuel today and filled the car up instead of just the normal £10 "
I do hope you wore gloves and washed after your hands, as the pump handles are touched by a lot of people
steve
Thats was probably spelt wrong, or had some grammer, that the "grammer police have to have a moan at
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BenB
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| posted on 23/3/20 at 09:59 AM |
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It's accepted that the actual prevalence is under-reported due to a lack of testing. The deaths less dificult to get wrong.
Current estimate is that the actual death rate is 0.5%-1% which compares badly to flu's death rate of 0.1%.
You also have to consider that
a) it's more contagious
b) the duration of illness and hospital support is much longer
If you look at the global cases and check out how many have got through it and how many have died. What about the rest- massive burden on the health
service.
And the 0.5-1% mortality rate is assuming optimal treatment and not, for example, everyone being ill at once and the health-service collapsing
resulting in no treatment.
We shouldn't under-estimate how badly the NHS is struggling now and yet somehow this feels like the calm before the storm. In a few weeks this
is going to bite and a lack of clinicians is going to be a real problem.
Anyway better go do some work to make up for the fact that half my team are currently off sick / having to self-isolate. Our team are amazing though-
three of our GPs currently off on maternity leave (post-natal) individually offered to come back and do free sessions for us.
I did find a stash of PPE3 masks online (really nice Scott ones)- they'll hopefully help. Going to give them to my colleagues in ENT who are
being trained to intubate patients due to a lack of anaesthetists. Putting an ET tube down a coughing and spluttering patients (and it's a
procedure were you have to get pretty close to see the vocal cords) without the right PPE isn't the best idea for longevity of staff.
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russbost
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| posted on 23/3/20 at 10:39 AM |
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I suspected the actual death rate would be skewed by the no. of cases where people have had it, but remained relatively symptom free, confirmed by Ben
B above.
Completely understand why we need to flatten the curve so that medical facilities can cope, but what happens at the end of this initial social
distancing phase? As there is not going to be a vaccine for at least 12 months my guess would be that a substantial amount of the population will need
to contract the virus during that period to provide some form of general herd immunity, at least among the young, fit & healthy?
So are travel restrictions going to be lifted at some point in the relatively near future? as if not that's written off the whole world's
airline industry along with the jobs of all the retail, catering & support staff & the whole world's travel & leisure industry, add
in all the pubs, cafes & restaurants, any trade requiring one to one contact, hairdressers for example, motor industry as I don't see too
many people queuing to buy new cars, then toss in many self employed who simply don't have the resources to weather this - I wonder how many
deaths that would result in?
People keep talking about "when this is over" like it;s going to be a few weeks or months at most, but surely that's not going to be
the case? The virus isn't simply going to go away because we've all socially distanced, unless we stay socially distanced - the only way
it can go away is for there to be a vaccine, herd immunity or every single case in the world is isolated & doesn't infect anyone else &
I don't see that happening
No one seems to be talking about what happens next - China now have very few new cases & I believe are bringing some cities out of lockdown, it
will be interesting to see how that pans out
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SJ
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| posted on 23/3/20 at 10:53 AM |
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quote:
I suspected the actual death rate would be skewed by the no. of cases where people have had it, but remained relatively symptom free, confirmed by Ben
B above.
Completely understand why we need to flatten the curve so that medical facilities can cope, but what happens at the end of this initial social
distancing phase? As there is not going to be a vaccine for at least 12 months my guess would be that a substantial amount of the population will need
to contract the virus during that period to provide some form of general herd immunity, at least among the young, fit & healthy?
So are travel restrictions going to be lifted at some point in the relatively near future? as if not that's written off the whole world's
airline industry along with the jobs of all the retail, catering & support staff & the whole world's travel & leisure industry, add
in all the pubs, cafes & restaurants, any trade requiring one to one contact, hairdressers for example, motor industry as I don't see too
many people queuing to buy new cars, then toss in many self employed who simply don't have the resources to weather this - I wonder how many
deaths that would result in?
People keep talking about "when this is over" like it;s going to be a few weeks or months at most, but surely that's not going to be
the case? The virus isn't simply going to go away because we've all socially distanced, unless we stay socially distanced - the only way
it can go away is for there to be a vaccine, herd immunity or every single case in the world is isolated & doesn't infect anyone else &
I don't see that happening
No one seems to be talking about what happens next - China now have very few new cases & I believe are bringing some cities out of lockdown, it
will be interesting to see how that pans out
Totally agree with everything you say - at some point the damage of acting potentially starts to equate to the damage of not acting. The other thing
that strikes me is people will only put up with lock down for so long, and then start to ignore the government.
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Mr Whippy
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| posted on 23/3/20 at 12:45 PM |
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I've heard the dead are coming back to life...
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SJ
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| posted on 23/3/20 at 01:01 PM |
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quote:
I've heard the dead are coming back to life...
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jps
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| posted on 23/3/20 at 01:23 PM |
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quote:
Originally posted by russbost
People keep talking about "when this is over" like it;s going to be a few weeks or months at most, but surely that's not going to be
the case?
I have heard 12-18 months as a timescale for a vaccine repeatedly on the news (and in discussion with colleagues who know a little about those the
kinds of processes). I would assume that vaccination would take time to roll out on a large scale, but presume it would essentially mean all is
'over'.
From discussion with a few people who are looking at some of the analysis coming out, a strategy being mooted is a sort of 'six on, two
off' cycle of heavy restrictions to our liberty/movements - whilst supressing the rapid spread of the disease as far as possible to allow health
services to cope, followed by lifting of restrictions to allow the economy/mental health of the nation to recover - leading to an inevitable upswing
in cases. (You can insert your own numbers into the on/off cycle). This would go on until the vaccine was rolled out.
I would have thought that we are going to see some irreversible social changes from this. I bet plenty of the pubs that closed their doors last week
won't even open again. I would also guess that we're going to head into some kind of global economic depression. Equally I think
we'll see people finding new ways to run business / changes to existing businesses to work within the 'new normal'.
quote:
Originally posted by SJThe other thing that strikes me is people will only put up with lock down for so long, and then start to ignore
the government.
I think this will be true, until the time they start to see deaths of people directly linked to them, at which point people may become less able to
'laugh it off as a joke' (the view amongst some of the 20-somethings around here). Up until yesterday I was of the opinion that this would
largely happen to 'other people' who I had never met, or come near to meeting. Today I hear that the head-teacher at my sister-in-laws
school has died, with coronavirus symptoms. It appears to be coming closer to home, at which point I suspect people will put up with rather a lot of
lockdown!
[Edited on 23/3/20 by jps]
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SJ
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| posted on 23/3/20 at 01:30 PM |
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quote:
quote:
Originally posted by SJThe other thing that strikes me is people will only put up with lock down for so long, and then start to ignore the
government.
I think this will be true, until the time they start to see deaths of people directly linked to them, at which point people may become less able to
'laugh it off as a joke' (the view amongst some of the 20-somethings around here). Up until yesterday I was of the opinion that this would
largely happen to 'other people' who I had never met, or come near to meeting. Today I hear that the head-teacher at my sister-in-laws
school has died, with coronavirus symptoms. It appears to be coming closer to home, at which point I suspect people will put up with rather a lot of
lockdown!
[Edited on 23/3/20 by jps]
You are right in that this has largely been distant and abstract to most people.
This is quite an interesting and thorough article, albeit from a US perspective
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
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cliftyhanger
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| posted on 23/3/20 at 01:41 PM |
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I think the model the govt are using suggests most of this year for varied amounts of social isolation. The idea being to TRY to keep the number of
cases low enough the NHS can cope. If it is allowed to just go wild, the whole thing will be over much quicker, but with a vast amount of deaths.
And the reality without a vaccine, or "herd immunity" there will be no end to the spread. I am waiting to see what happens in Wuhan as
very few have had CV, but I struggle to believe it has gone and won't return.
The govt are probably doing everything they can to protect the businesses and jobs out there. So far the response has been sensible? I guess the hope
is that when things start to return to normal, businesses will be ready to go rather than gone.
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perksy
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| posted on 23/3/20 at 10:57 PM |
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Just curious, With the latest clampdown just announced tonight by Boris, is taking a car for a service or an MOT still allowed ?
If your an essential worker then I guess it has to be, but what about everybody else ?
Its not exercise, a shopping trip or a Medical need, nor going to work ?
Will they have to provide exemption certificates and how will this go down with the Insurers ?
Come to think of it will garages (non petrol) stay open at all or are they exempt ?
Also just wandering if the police will have the manpower to enforce all this as there has to be grey areas ?
Hopefully everyone will take heed of the new rules, but there's always a few who won't as we've seen with the supermarket raiders...
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gremlin1234
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| posted on 23/3/20 at 11:23 PM |
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quote:
Originally posted by perksy
Just curious, With the latest clampdown just announced tonight by Boris, is taking a car for a service or an MOT still allowed ?
If your an essential worker then I guess it has to be, but what about everybody else ?
Its not exercise, a shopping trip or a Medical need, nor going to work ?
Will they have to provide exemption certificates and how will this go down with the Insurers ?
Come to think of it will garages (non petrol) stay open at all or are they exempt ?
Also just wandering if the police will have the manpower to enforce all this as there has to be grey areas ?
Hopefully everyone will take heed of the new rules, but there's always a few who won't as we've seen with the supermarket raiders...
DVSA suspended HGV and PSV vehicle testing a few days ago
COVID-19 Heavy vehicle testing suspended
https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/UKDVSA/bulletins/281af11
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/driving-tests-and-mots-for-heavy-vehicles-suspended-for-up-to-3-months-to-help-tackle-spread-of-coronavirus
note this is not car mot tests!
quote:
MOTs for cars, motorcycles and light vans
The Department for Transport continues to keep MOT testing for cars, motorcycles and light vans under review. It will provide an update in due
course.
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adithorp
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| posted on 24/3/20 at 12:00 AM |
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perksy, I'd love to know those answers... then I'd know what to do tomorrow. Open the workshop or close it up? Think we'll have to
come up with some creative halfway house.
Fingers crossed they don't screw us on the paying 80% of wages guff.
"A witty saying proves nothing" Voltaire
http://jpsc.org.uk/forum/
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gremlin1234
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| posted on 24/3/20 at 12:18 AM |
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quote:
Originally posted by adithorp
perksy, I'd love to know those answers... then I'd know what to do tomorrow. Open the workshop or close it up? Think we'll have to
come up with some creative halfway house.
Fingers crossed they don't screw us on the paying 80% of wages guff.
the BBC news site lists (my bold)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52011915
Only a small group of retailers will be allowed to stay open including:
Supermarkets and other food shops
Pharmacies
Petrol stations
Newsagents
Bicycle shops
Home and hardware stores
Laundrettes and dry cleaners
Garages
Pet shops
Post Offices
Banks
However, retailers will still be able to take online orders and deliver items to your home.
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adithorp
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| posted on 24/3/20 at 12:25 AM |
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Pretty sure we weren't on that list earlier (or bike shops).
"A witty saying proves nothing" Voltaire
http://jpsc.org.uk/forum/
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gremlin1234
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| posted on 24/3/20 at 12:36 AM |
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quote:
Originally posted by adithorp
Pretty sure we weren't on that list earlier (or bike shops).
yea information changing all the time...
yesterday the list of most vulnerable included 'copd', now it has changed to 'severe copd'
[Edited on 24/3/20 by gremlin1234]
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SJ
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| posted on 24/3/20 at 09:18 AM |
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quote:
Supermarkets and other food shops
Pharmacies
Petrol stations
Newsagents
Bicycle shops
Home and hardware stores
Laundrettes and dry cleaners
Garages
Pet shops
Post Offices
Banks
However, retailers will still be able to take online orders and deliver items to your home.
If you were to be picky that includes a lot of retailers. e.g. John Lewis sell home and hardware, Halfords are a bike shop, presumably Screwfix,
Wickes etc. will all still be open. I think Sports Direct sell bikes so Mike Ashley will have an excuse.
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adithorp
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| posted on 24/3/20 at 11:18 AM |
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quote:
Originally posted by gremlin1234
quote:
Originally posted by adithorp
Pretty sure we weren't on that list earlier (or bike shops).
yea information changing all the time...
yesterday the list of most vulnerable included 'copd', now it has changed to 'severe copd'
[Edited on 24/3/20 by gremlin1234]
All pretty academic in the end as nearly every job cancelled this morning leaving an empty diary.
"A witty saying proves nothing" Voltaire
http://jpsc.org.uk/forum/
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starterman
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| posted on 24/3/20 at 12:04 PM |
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I'm open at the moment. I deal with an awful lot of farmers and as we know they have no concept of time or anything else lol. But no one enters
the shop. Leave it outside, get back in your vehicle and ring me. Then I'll deal with it. Seems to be working so far, he says fingers crossed.
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perksy
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| posted on 24/3/20 at 07:01 PM |
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quote:
Originally posted by adithorp
quote:
Originally posted by gremlin1234
quote:
Originally posted by adithorp
Pretty sure we weren't on that list earlier (or bike shops).
yea information changing all the time...
yesterday the list of most vulnerable included 'copd', now it has changed to 'severe copd'
[Edited on 24/3/20 by gremlin1234]
All pretty academic in the end as nearly every job cancelled this morning leaving an empty diary.
Sorry to hear that, That's not good news
Fingerscrossed it picks up for you asap
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