Mr Whippy
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| posted on 19/3/20 at 12:21 PM |
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quote:
Originally posted by russbost
I think we're going to see millions of people with depression & thousands of suicides
and that's the real worry
As usual the media is now in scare mongering overdrive about a coronavirus recession and creating yet another self fulfilling prophecy
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steve m
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| posted on 19/3/20 at 12:32 PM |
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"All I can say I am glad I didn't put my savings to a trust fund (shares etc) as advised by my work's pension advisor. "
so what about your pension fund, that will of lost around 20% of the last couple of weeks
Mine lost 100k in 3 days, so it is a very worrying state we live in today !!
steve
Thats was probably spelt wrong, or had some grammer, that the "grammer police have to have a moan at
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Mr Whippy
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| posted on 19/3/20 at 12:38 PM |
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quote:
Originally posted by steve m
"All I can say I am glad I didn't put my savings to a trust fund (shares etc) as advised by my work's pension advisor. "
so what about your pension fund, that will of lost around 20% of the last couple of weeks
Mine lost 100k in 3 days, so it is a very worrying state we live in today !!
steve
Blimey 
I have a very small pension from old jobs and I see it in my online bank account, I did wonder what on earth was going on with it reducing
(plummeting), I was beginning to think someone had hacked into my account! That is a worry if you depend on it.
[Edited on 19/3/20 by Mr Whippy]
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02GF74
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| posted on 19/3/20 at 12:41 PM |
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quote:
Originally posted by steve m
"All I can say I am glad I didn't put my savings to a trust fund (shares etc) as advised by my work's pension advisor. "
so what about your pension fund, that will of lost around 20% of the last couple of weeks
Mine lost 100k in 3 days, so it is a very worrying state we live in today !!
steve
No doubt it's gone down, I am old enough to be able to draw from it, so it matters now.... but in the ends it's only money.
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tony9876
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| posted on 19/3/20 at 12:43 PM |
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I genuinely think the real risk is now in elements outside of the virus, increases in unemployment, depression long, term impact of financial hardship
etc.
The real risk from data available on the virus is with the elderly and people with lowered ability to fight viruses. In Italy the average death of a
Covid19 victim is 79.5 and 99% had pre existing illnesses.
Actual data suggestions fatalities would barely register on an annual run rate at the moment. Harsh but that's what data is pointing to.
China avg deaths per year- c9mn people die per annum
Italy avg deaths per year - c600,000
A little more time and we will know more.
[Edited on 19/3/20 by tony9876]
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russbost
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| posted on 19/3/20 at 12:52 PM |
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I suspect the death rate is actually waaaay lower than the 4% or so which is bandied about, as there is a very strong possibility that, particularly
looking at those people under say 50ish & in good health, many of them will have had the virus & may not even be aware of it, until we start
testing large no.'s of the population to see if they've actually already had it, we won't know what the true death rate is.
That said, if it was only 1% & everyone gets infected at some point (which is unlikely, we don't all get flu every year, tho' this is
apparently more contagious than flu) you're talking 660,000 people dying, over what, maybe a couple of years (ignoring all the "knock
on" domino effect deaths due to poor economic conditions), that is a truly scary figure
Perhaps we should all be buying shares in undertakers ...........
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coyoteboy
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| posted on 19/3/20 at 01:07 PM |
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Worth noting that the figures we have currently for flu are where the total numbers are relatively low (NHS can cope) and 40% of the population are
vaccinated, but otherwise operating as normal with freedom of movement.
For this virus there is no vaccine. The NHS won't cope. And the numbers we have at the moment are with a massive chunk of the population in
lockdown. Comparing it to Flu is nonsensical. If you let it run rife as Flu does - you'd be looking at millions dead (and still may be).
On the plus side, we may all get an extra year due to the improved air quality, if we
survive.https://fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-compare-influenza/
[Edited on 19/3/20 by coyoteboy]
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David Jenkins
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| posted on 19/3/20 at 01:07 PM |
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There's all the peripheral 'normal-life' things that are being disrupted as well: my next-door neighbour's wife died last week
(aneurysm) and he's having to have a private cremation next week - she was a popular lady and in normal circumstances she would have been buried
next to her parents in the local churchyard, with many local attendees. As her husband said to me this morning "I don't want to be
responsible for wiping out half the village". Sad.
Also, my niece's wedding in April has now been cancelled - also sad.
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jps
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| posted on 19/3/20 at 01:19 PM |
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quote:
Originally posted by David Jenkins
As her husband said to me this morning "I don't want to be responsible for wiping out half the village". Sad.
Indeed. My father (73 and now on his own after my mum passed away 5 months ago) attended a funeral yesterday, and will do so again next week. Not huge
attendance, but all the regulars at his church - he is one of the 'youngsters' by all account. The consequences of him going do worry
me...
I have really stressed that I want him to look after himself as best he can - but I suspect he's become rather more fatalistic since last
October...
[Edited on 19/3/20 by jps]
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overdriver
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| posted on 19/3/20 at 02:03 PM |
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Re. the peripheral consequences, despite our advanced years my partner and I were due to get married today. One of our witnesses went down with a bug
(probably fairly innocuous) and we couldn't find a healthy replacement in time so we had to cancel. Partly as a consequence, therefore, we took
the decision to commence self-isolation at that point.
The reason for getting married was to formalise our relationship to simplify property ownership etc. as we planned to move to Mallorca this year -
before the end of the Brexit transition period. Now there appears little chance of achieving that. We have taken our house off the market and are
'girding our loins' for the long haul.
Addendum re. shopping. Son-in-law (or would have been as per above!) has just kindly dropped off provisions he had to scavenge by visiting three
different stores. I've had some nice messages from the CEOs of Sainsburys & Tesco saying I, and presumably several hundred other deemed
elderly/vulnerable/at risk people, can have priority shopping for an hour on certain mornings but that really makes a mockery of self-isolation.
Michael.
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bart
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| posted on 19/3/20 at 02:49 PM |
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the numbers
hi all , may the force be with you or your god be at your shoulder
I work with and have contact with the type of
people crunching the numbers , id like to say there some of the brightest people in this country and some from other country's , by now they
will have trimmed their mathematical models to fit the available data , I have every confidence that the numbers they are giving are correct
unfortunately.
the only thing we can do as a nation is flatten the bell curve to meet our available capacity. that is what they are trying to do but uniformed public
pressure ( read press ) are forcing them to do things they don't want to do at certain times. any how as is said . may your god be with you and
the ones you love.
to add to your doom the figures I have been tracking and accurately predicting would suggest about 2.5% mortality rate in the uk due to the
demographics , if this thing really gets a hold .
[Edited on 19/3/20 by bart]
BE ALERT > BRITAIN NEEDS LERTS
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SJ
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| posted on 19/3/20 at 02:50 PM |
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quote:
elderly/vulnerable/at risk people, can have priority shopping for an hour on certain mornings
Cue said elderly people being sent out as shopping mules to buy for the whole family!
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David Jenkins
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| posted on 19/3/20 at 03:23 PM |
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quote:
Originally posted by overdriver
Re. the peripheral consequences, despite our advanced years my partner and I were due to get married today. One of our witnesses went down with a bug
(probably fairly innocuous) and we couldn't find a healthy replacement in time so we had to cancel. Partly as a consequence, therefore, we took
the decision to commence self-isolation at that point.
How very sad - I hope that you can get something organised as soon as this crisis is over. Best wishes in the meantime.
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bart
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| posted on 19/3/20 at 03:24 PM |
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Ventilator beds and available staff
I'm now going to RANT about ventilator beds
and not about the lack but what they are trying to do.
in my work life I design products and project manage , and I am astounded at the lack of thought going into the "build more Ventilator's
"
what is needed is a
what's the simplest quickest to build ventilator beds we can get away with approach
if we sat down the people who really know down , I'd lay what's left of my pension pot ! that we don't need the sophistication
and bells and whistle's and flashing lights that we see on modern ventilator beds that they are trying to make.
I don't know all the details but if the 1950-70's ventilator's work good enough to keep the vast majority alive
and they where just electro mechanical then that's what we make
find one - strip it down draw up the plans -with enough engineers 48 hrs tops
distribute the plans to subcontract engineering company's
4-5 days later parts start to arrive
assemble them where ever ! test to a specification
bingo in 2 weeks we have the first 100 beds then ramp up within 3 to 4 weeks 2000 a week easy
I tried to help and register but was told because I had never been involved with a CE approved ventilator I would not be needed
you don't need CE approval to stop people dying. this is a simple managed design and manufacture task , i'm lost for words
re " not enough staff "
again staff don't need 2 years training , for example in a ward of say 50 beds a couple of fully trained per shift - then inverted pyramid
down structure to Intelligent bed watchers at each bed or two . if necessary pulled from say teachers ect
I know i'm going to get some real flack for this comment , but for %--% sake someone just needs to get a managed grip of the whole thing.
be that government or "industry"
Rant over !
BE ALERT > BRITAIN NEEDS LERTS
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David Jenkins
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| posted on 19/3/20 at 03:28 PM |
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Like the Italian medical staff who designed and printed air valves using 3D printers because they couldn't get spares from the manufacturer -
theirs cost $1, official ones cost $1000. Now some patent troll is trying to sue them...
I'll find the link and post it, if I can. I know who my heart is with!
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MikeR
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| posted on 19/3/20 at 03:37 PM |
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I posted about the Italian printed last to a friend timeline. I strongly suspect their is a lot more to this story than a trip trying to sure.
I worked on verified / validated it systems for a while. I didn't do products but the principles are the same. I suspect it the company had
given the details they would have inherited liability for the past of it failed and under EU law could be sued. If I'm right what need is a
practical attitude, let's follow the ventilator approach but have someone double check it's suitable for all patients, then authorised.
Maybe we a week or tells testing but then we rock and roll.
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overdriver
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| posted on 19/3/20 at 03:40 PM |
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quote:
Originally posted by David Jenkins
quote:
Originally posted by overdriver
Re. the peripheral consequences, despite our advanced years my partner and I were due to get married today. One of our witnesses went down with a bug
(probably fairly innocuous) and we couldn't find a healthy replacement in time so we had to cancel. Partly as a consequence, therefore, we took
the decision to commence self-isolation at that point.
How very sad - I hope that you can get something organised as soon as this crisis is over. Best wishes in the meantime.
Thank you David. At least we are retired and mortgage free in a comfortable home. My son-in-law is a chef and his restaurant hasn't yet
re-opened from the winter floods - there won't be much point now. My daughter has had to close her Montessori child minding operation.
Consequently, both off-spring (living in rented accommodation and saving to buy) will be without income for the foreseeable future (that seems hardly
the right phrase to use in the circumstances). They are the real sufferers.
Michael
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bart
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| posted on 19/3/20 at 03:57 PM |
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Re Patents
re patents - good call
but if the older ventilators will do the job all the patents will have expired.
BE ALERT > BRITAIN NEEDS LERTS
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David Jenkins
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| posted on 19/3/20 at 04:06 PM |
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quote:
Originally posted by bart
re patents - good call
but if the older ventilators will do the job all the patents will have expired.
I must have latent dyslexia - I read that as "...all the patients will have expired" !
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Angel Acevedo
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| posted on 19/3/20 at 04:09 PM |
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quote:
Originally posted by 02GF74
It is difficult to know if it is blown out of all proportion or not. !,000s die from flu every year yet that seems to be accepted as normal.
The last figures I saw ware 8000 deaths from 200,000 cases, that is 4% which is extremely worrying. Ofcourse those figures may be well out - the
reported cases may be a lot less than actual but nevertheless, to put it in perspective, count your family, friends and work colleagues, once you have
reached 25, then according to those stats, one of them will die ASSUMING THEY ALL CATCH THE VIRUS.
Obviously it is not as simple as that as the virus seems to target older people and those with health issues, Darwinism in action.
and all because some c*** in China decide he want to eat bat for dinner. WTF??? Isn't KFC not good enough?
All I can say I am glad I didn't put my savings to a trust fund (shares etc) as advised by my work's pension advisor.
I don´t think eating bat was the culprit.
It is well known that bats transmit rabies and you don´t see a rabies epidemic.
I am no virologist or infectologist... (?) so my comment may as well be completely out of place...
AA
Beware of what you wish.. for it may come true....
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perksy
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| posted on 19/3/20 at 04:29 PM |
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I work in the NHS and we're just getting on with it, If we don't do it then who will?
We are having hand gel nicked at our Hospital by the general public, You learn more about human nature everyday
I really don't think the press/papers are helping and some folks are acting as though its the end of the world, It isn't...
Worth remembering that between 8000 & 10,000 people die just about every year due to the Flu
Just wash your hands regularly and take the required precautions 
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overdriver
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| posted on 19/3/20 at 04:29 PM |
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quote:
Originally posted by Angel Acevedo
quote:
Originally posted by 02GF74
It is difficult to know if it is blown out of all proportion or not. !,000s die from flu every year yet that seems to be accepted as normal.
The last figures I saw ware 8000 deaths from 200,000 cases, that is 4% which is extremely worrying. Ofcourse those figures may be well out - the
reported cases may be a lot less than actual but nevertheless, to put it in perspective, count your family, friends and work colleagues, once you have
reached 25, then according to those stats, one of them will die ASSUMING THEY ALL CATCH THE VIRUS.
Obviously it is not as simple as that as the virus seems to target older people and those with health issues, Darwinism in action.
and all because some c*** in China decide he want to eat bat for dinner. WTF??? Isn't KFC not good enough?
All I can say I am glad I didn't put my savings to a trust fund (shares etc) as advised by my work's pension advisor.
I don´t think eating bat was the culprit.
It is well known that bats transmit rabies and you don´t see a rabies epidemic.
I am no virologist or infectologist... (?) so my comment may as well be completely out of place...
AA
Well I heard it was from scales on a pangolin. Now I've tried playing one of them and I couldn't get a single note out of it!
Michael.
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David Jenkins
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| posted on 19/3/20 at 04:31 PM |
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And on top of all this - my main PC has died! Bit of a 'first-world problem' but I came downstairs yesterday morning and switched it on -
and got a startup error. It's a PITA when I'm at home looking for things to do... I think the motherboard has died: the disks are good
(I've checked them), but it won't read USB sticks or the CD drive. Now waiting for a new board to arrive.
Currently using a fairly old laptop, which is just-about acceptable.
Sigh... now back to the real world problems.
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coyoteboy
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| posted on 19/3/20 at 05:58 PM |
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quote:
Originally posted by perksy
I really don't think the press/papers are helping and some folks are acting as though its the end of the world, It isn't...
Worth remembering that between 8000 & 10,000 people die just about every year due to the Flu
Easy for people to say without significant underlying conditions, not in the prime risk category, to say. Attitudes like this are why my next door
neighbour is still walking about happily, spitting on the floor, going to the shops and handling all the stuff I have to touch and saying "yeah
I had the symptoms but it's nothing more than the flu - people will get over it". Other people's blase attitude add to why I have
lock myself away and take extra precautions - it's at times like this that you see people only think of themselves.
Remember:
1) Flu has a vaccine and still kills 20K people a year in the UK. This has no vaccine and a ~10x higher death rate in those it does infect.
2) In the general population the death rate is ~2-3% ish. In the at risk categories it's 20%. Would you like to be staring 20% in the face?
Remember it's not all older folks in that category, it's plenty of people for who day to day avoidance of illness was *already* a real
effort.
The number of specialists who have come out and said "if you think this is just the flu, you're sadly mistaken". I don't think
any NHS staff member should be taking the line you have, given the NHS and WHO opinions, though I note you're not medically qualified.
[Edited on 19/3/20 by coyoteboy]
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David Jenkins
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| posted on 19/3/20 at 06:05 PM |
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What gets me is the people who say "it's just like flu for most people". I can say with some certainty that I've only had
'real flu' once or twice in my 68 years (as opposed to 'man-flu' ) and I never - ever - want to have it again. I was
incredibly ill when I had flu, and I was a lot younger then. And the general medical opinion is that this is far worse than flu...
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